Over the past few days WWL China has surveyed seventy five (75) exporters in China. This group represents the factories who supply our 20 largest import customers. Each of these companies was asked to provide information on the date they resumed work after the extended Chinese New Year holiday (CNY), the date they made or expect to make their first export shipment(s), the percentage of production line recovery they stand at today and the percentage of labor that has returned to work on their respective production lines. This survey includes companies located in all major manufacturing centers of China with the most being in Guangdong Province, Shanghai, Qingdao and Ningbo. We believe the results are encouraging. Following are the results of our survey:
Factory Re-Openings
All factories are either already reopened or scheduled to reopen by March 23rd. The range of reopening dates was from February 14th to March 23rd.
First Shipment Dates
Thirty-one of the factories surveyed or 40% have already made shipments post CNY. Of the remaining 60% there are 15 factories or 20% who have no scheduled shipments prior to April 1st. The remaining factories all plan to ship prior to the end of March.
Production Line Capacity
Twenty-four of the 75 factories or surveyed (32%) report being back to 100% of production capacity. 35 others (47%) report being back to 70% of capacity or higher. Only three factories reported production capacity below 50%.
Labor Strength
Twenty-one of the 75 factories surveyed (28%) report being back to full strength in terms of labor. Another 19 (25%) report being at 90% or higher but less than 100%. Fifty-seven of the factories surveyed (76%) are at 70% of capacity or higher as of today. Only 4 factories surveyed are below 50% of labor strength,
Clearly things are gradually moving back to normalcy in China. It is reasonable to expect that without a setback, full production will be restored by May. Meanwhile we are seeing a spike in volume from other origins, particularly from Vietnam and India. Because of the blank sailings implemented by the Transpacific carriers, space is tight from India to the US West Coast and from Vietnam in general. It is expected that space will be tight industry-wide, with a surge in volume, starting from late April into May/June.
Worldwide Logistics will continuously monitor this situation and provide meaningful updates on a regular basis.